Quick Take
Strategy (MSTR), Michael Saylor’s bitcoin treasury company, has set aside a $1.44 billion U.S. dollar reserve to cover future debt obligations and preferred stock dividends.
Onchain analytics firm CryptoQuant interprets this as a significant shift: a tactical move to prepare for a potential extended Bitcoin bear market, acknowledging the risk of a deep or prolonged BTC drawdown.
CryptoQuant's head of research, Julio Moreno, projects a potential Bitcoin trading range of $70,000 to $55,000 next year if the bearish phase persists.
MSTR's Tactical Pivot: $1.44 Billion USD Reserve Signals Caution
Michael Saylor's Bitcoin-centric company, Strategy (MSTR), has made a notable change to its treasury strategy. Earlier this week, the firm established a $1.44 billion U.S. dollar reserve. This fund, secured via its recent at-the-market share issuance, is designed to support dividend payments on preferred stock and interest on outstanding debt for at least 12 months, with a long-term goal of covering 24 months or more.
Onchain analytics leader CryptoQuant views this as a crucial signal that MSTR is adjusting to weaker, potentially bearish, market conditions.
"Strategy appears to acknowledge a non-trivial probability of a deep or extended bitcoin drawdown," CryptoQuant stated in its recent report. The firm suggests that establishing a 24-month USD buffer indicates an expectation for Bitcoin to potentially "trade sideways or lower for an extended period," possibly limiting its access to favorable capital markets for future stock issuance.
The Dual-Reserve Model: Reducing Forced Sales
This move introduces a dual-reserve model—holding both substantial USD and Bitcoin. CryptoQuant highlights that this strategy significantly reduces the risk of forced Bitcoin sales during market downturns, a major concern for investors.
However, the change also marks a "tactical shift" from MSTR's established playbook of the past years, which aggressively prioritized issuing debt and equity solely to accumulate more Bitcoin.
The implications for the wider Bitcoin market are material:
Reduced Demand: "Strategy's reduced marginal bitcoin buying softens a powerful demand channel that amplified previous bull cycles."
Increased Stability: The USD reserve and newly disclosed capability for hedging/selling "significantly reduce the probability of distress-driven bitcoin selling, which is ultimately supportive of long-run market stability."
CryptoQuant concludes that MSTR management no longer treats its Bitcoin exposure as entirely untouchable. Protecting the stack now requires flexibility, encompassing cash buffers, hedging strategies, and selective monetization in scenarios of extreme duress.
Bear Market Signals and Price Projections
MSTR's shift towards a conservative, liquidity-focused approach directly aligns with Bitcoin’s largest drawdown of 2025. CryptoQuant notes that key onchain and technical indicators are now signaling the onset of a bearish phase. Its own Bull Score Index recently plummeted to zero—the most bearish level—for the first time since January 2022.
Julio Moreno, CryptoQuant's head of research, shared his outlook with The Block. He suggested that if the current bear market deepens, Bitcoin could be trading between $70,000 and $55,000 next year, with the latter figure representing the "most bearish scenario."
Moreno also admitted that the USD reserve creation suggests the probability of selling is "a bit higher," though he stressed that MSTR would utilize Bitcoin derivatives first, making an outright BTC sale a measure of last resort. MSTR's pace of accumulation has indeed slowed, dropping from a peak of 134,000 BTC in November 2024 to 9,100 BTC in November 2025.
Investment Bank Maintains Outperform Rating
Despite the bearish technical signals, investment bank Mizuho Securities reiterated its outperform rating and a $484 price target for MSTR following the announcement.
Key takeaways from Mizuho's Q&A with MSTR CFO Andrew Kang included:
The USD reserve is strictly a liquidity risk-management tool, not a precursor to selling Bitcoin.
MSTR expects to grow the reserve when its multiple-to-net-asset value (mNAV) is favorable (above 1).
The company believes it can sustain operations and dividends for over three years at the current BTC price (around $92,700).
Mizuho echoed the sentiment, stating, "Selling Bitcoin is considered a last resort, only if mNAV remains below 1 over a very extended period." The reserve acts as a critical buffer, preventing forced asset sales during extended crypto downturns.
